South Asia refers to the eight current countries that once fell within the vicinity of the British Raj: Pakistan, India, Maldives, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Myanmar. Today, nearly all are embroiled in turmoil of some sort. Having lived in and visited three south Asian countries before, I was looking forward to further exploring the region on this trip. Unfortunately, for our plans and the residents of many of these countries, political instability across south Asia has increased dramatically since we began our trip in early July. Although Joylani was hesitant about visiting many of these countries before our trip began, the wave of turmoil and violence currently sweeping across south Asia is disappointing for me as we’re continually crossing countries off our itinerary. Below is a breakdown of all eight south Asian countries, the current events going on, and why we are/aren’t heading there. My motivation for this post is two-fold. One, to update our families on where we’re headed (we get a lot of emails from family saying to beware of this or that region). And two, to practice my writing by summarizing and disseminating news from a region in turmoil (which doesn’t get much US news coverage because south Asia is neither western nor has oil). Here we go (from West to East):
Pakistan: The two main problems in Pakistan right now are Islamic extremism and political turmoil. Long a haven to Islamic militants, al-Qaeda and the Taliban operate freely in Pakistan’s western and northern frontiers. Traditionally, there’s been an implicit agreement between these groups and the government to leave each other alone. Within the past year or two though the two sides have begun fighting; the Islamic militants attacking and capturing/kidnapping Pakistani military personnel and carrying out bombings/kidnappings in major cities, while the military government has begun cracking down on urban members of the religious Right and bombing mountainous al-Qaeda/Taliban hideouts. The result is that the danger once confined to the frontier border regions is expanding into Pakistani cities. The other problem Pakistan faces is that of its military dictator, Musharraf. Since his coup in 1999, he’s enjoyed lukewarm support domestically and American political and financial (estimated at nearly $40b) in exchange for “supporting†the war on terror (although any evidence of this support is weak). Recently though, he’s come under immense pressure from the Supreme Court, the educated Left and the religious Right. This week, he just won another term as president, although his rivals Bhutto and Sharif are in exile, there was a massive boycott of the elections, and the constitutionality of running for a third-term and being simultaneously head of state and head of the military is being debated by the SC. Thus riots, rallies, and the resulting crackdowns are happening every week now. Despite being listed as a terrorist-haven in the 9/11 report, I had entertained thoughts of visiting Pakistan, especially when I found out my buddy Hasan would likely be visiting this winter. However, with the recent political/civil unrest, daily news of riots, and the new fear that Mush will impose martial law to quell it all, Joylani and I have decided we’ll have to see Karachi, Lahore, and Islamabad some other time.Â
India: The two main security threats to India are border problems and terrorism. A simple summarization of these issues is sufficient to understand that it faces enormous challenges. Most of India’s borders are unrecognized. Since Independence, it’s fought three wars with Pakistan and one with China, all over territory. Pakistan still claims the state of Kashmir. China still claims large swaths of Northeastern and even Northern India. The terror threat in India includes everything from al-Qaeda/al-Qaeda-inspired groups to Pakistani/Bangladeshi intelligence units to Naxalite/Maoist instigators. Islamic extremists (both ideological and the aforementioned state-sponsored) have carried out several high-profile urban bombings, oftentimes instigating radical Hindu attacks against the Muslim community. The Maoists are active in stirring up mob/class violence in rural India, just as they’ve successfully done to gain power in Nepal. Additionally, India is the only functioning democracy in South Asia and borders every other SA nation, which means its surrounded by civil wars and dictatorships.
Maldives: Like Pakistan, the current dictator took power in a coup and has enjoyed lukewarm support ever since. He hasn’t alienated the 100% Muslim population and has carefully and successfully coordinated the financial success of the Maldivian tourism industry. The main danger (besides falling coconuts (which supposed kill a dozen people a year) and tsunamis) in the Maldives, like most countries in the region, is Islamic extremism. The 9/11 Report listed the Maldives as a recruiting and meeting ground for al-Qaeda operatives. Although not usually in the news, a bomb exploded in one Male’s parks last week, apparently aimed at and injuring 10 foreign tourists. Joylani and I are still planning to visit the Maldives, as that’s the first terror incident I’ve ever heard of in the Maldives. Additionally, we’ll be on a resort atoll for our entire stay.
Sri Lanka: I must issue a disclaimer here that I know the least about Sri Lanka out of all the countries listed here. However, I do know that a civil war has been fought between the ethnically-Tamil Hindus and the native Sri Lankan Buddhists for the past 20 years. Although the capital and south are relatively safe, the north is engulfed in a guerilla war. The Tamil Tigers (as they’re known) feel that Tamils are discriminated against by the majority and are demanding recognition, rights, and some even want a separate Tamil state. Several Sri Lankan presidential administrations have unsuccessfully tried to broker ceasefires. The 2004 tsunami brought a temporary ceasefire, but fighting has since flared up again. The Tamils have vowed not to target civilians/cities, while the government has been accused of horrific air-raids on civilians and villages in the north. Like I said, the Tamil’s are not operating in the south and have said they won’t target civilians, but Joylani said, “We’re not going to Sri Lanka.†So we’re not going.
Bhutan: A mysterious little country that’s probably even less known than the Maldives. Its mysteriousness is a product of its xenophobic monarchal government. Learning from the events of Sikkim (another Buddhist kingdom that in its waning days agreed to be annexed by India in the 1970s, rather than face a probable invasion by China) and problems of Nepal, it has vowed to remain isolated. Although I’ve heard the monarchy is quite strict, there doesn’t seem to be any political or civil unrest. Joylani and I aren’t going there, not because it dangerous, but because part of the government’s method of retaining total control/keeping foreigners out/preserving their culture is to impose a $200 per day “tax†on all visitors.Â
Nepal: Traditionally a monarchy, Nepal is now embroiled in a political battle between the king and Maoists. For years, the Maoists operated mainly in the countryside, extorting money and occasionally attacking people. In the past couple of years, they’ve backed away from their violent origins and have become more mainstream, even winning elected offices. Consequently, the king has been forced to cede many of the powers he once enjoyed. Earlier this year, a ceasefire was signed and the Maoists have disarmed. Recently, the some Maoist representatives have walked out of the government and the elections have been continually postponed because the king has not yet declared Nepal a republic. The main problem now is continual compulsory strikes which shut down the entire country for days at a time. There’s also sporadic bombings in Katmandu. Joylani and I are still deciding to visit Nepal. The Maoists have disarmed and violence is pretty sporadic, like India.
Bangladesh: The Bangladeshi government has fallen apart several times in several years now and corruption charges are rampant. The political and economic problems of the country have spawned civil unrest, which has resulted in continual protests and rallies. I have not included too many details because the whole political system is a mess. No progress is being made and the country is mired in hopelessness. The potential danger to travelers is getting caught in some sort of mob violence, which is pretty prevalent in South Asia. The military staging a coup to end this thoughtlessness is also a threat. Although Joylani had no desire to visit Bangladesh, I thought it would be an interesting and logical stop on our way to Myanmar. But now, with Burma crossed off the list, we’ll be skipping Bangladesh as well.
Myanmar: Burma was a for-sure stop on our itinerary. Sure it was a dictatorship ruled by a military junta, but the strongest dictatorships have been safest. It was said that Iraq was one of the safest countries to visit before Saddam was toppled. Same with Qaddafi’s Libya or Kim Jong Il’s North Korea. Dictatorships don’t have any crime or civil unrest. But when they do, it can get messy. Such is the case with Myanmar. Largely free from massive public dissent since 1988, Buddhist monks inspired the masses to take to the streets of Yangon in September. With the government consequently shooting civilians, monks, peaceful protesters, foreigners, etc., it was an easy decision to call off Myanmar. In the spirit of Orwell (who spent years in Burma), I would feel safe visiting Myanmar with Big Brother around, but I’ll stay away when “he’s†mad.