I’m afraid that Bolivia is headed down painful paths, both politically and economically. I’ll begin with what I believe is the simpler of the two issues: the economy. To begin with, Bolivia is one of Latin America’s poorest nations , with average earnings around $900 and GDP per capita only $2900. We heard that mining is the most lucrative industry, as miners can earn around $10/day (although most die within 10-15 years of their first entry into a mine). In contrast, doctors earn around $250/month, or $8.50/day. Thus, there’s not a real incentive to educate oneself (except to emigrate). Foreign aid is a huge part of the economy. Besides the politics of aid that get reported in the papers, foreign aid is evident everyday in Bolivia: the donated vans and buses with Korean and Japanese characters still on them, the road signs indicating a road is being funded by the EU or Denmark or someone else, and the used clothes that people wear. Like its neighbors, Bolivia is fully reliant on commodity exports, especially mining. Although its relied on everything from silver to tin, today its main exports are natural gas and zinc. Again, like its neighbors (some of whom I’ve written about already), the commodities crash that began in July 2008 will have devastating consequences for Bolivia. Bolivia has practically no domestic industry and its entire economy is hostage to world commodity prices. The bottom line is that Bolivia’s economy is FULLY dependent on commodity prices and things are getting worse. There’s not much Bolivia can do about either; corruption siphons off money even in good times, the currency is pegged by the government so the central banks hands are tied, and Bolivia has massive debt which precludes it from doing anything proactive. Bolivia’s economic situation is simple and bleak: its poor, getting poorer, and not much can be done.

            Its on this wave of bad economics that Juan “Evo” Morales has swept into power. An Aymara (Bolivian indigenous ethnicity) coca picker, Evo rose to power as a labor leader. After a long struggle that included beatings, prison time, and eventually politics, Evo became Bolivia’s first indigenous president in 2005. He has been incredibly controversial both domestically and abroad. He’s sparred with the US over American drug policies concerning coca. On this issue, I actually take the side of Evo and Bolivia. The US is withholding trade and economic benefits because Bolivia does not ban farmers from growing coca. The US position is that Bolivia is supplying the cocaine drug trade. The Bolivian position is that coca leaves are grown and used widely within Bolivia. Traveling around the country, its evident that everybody chews it- even we’ve tried it. Some people believe it combats altitude sickness, while some just like it for its stimulative properties (like cigarettes). Evo asserts that the US’s domestic drug problem is not a valid reason to assert power of Bolivian affairs. This issue actually got quite hot and the US even withdrew its ambassador and all Peace Corps staff a few months ago (although I believe they’ve returned since). Since Bolivians use and have used coca for generations and it’s a part of their culture, I don’t think the US should belittle Bolivia as it has. Secondly, I don’t believe Bolivia has a cocaine problem and most coca is processed into cocaine in Colombia and Peru.

            From the second we saw Evo posters on every wall of the Bolivian Consulate to the graffiti of “EVO, SÍ” on every rock along the highways, its immediately apparent that he has quite a following. About 60% of Bolivia’s population is indigenous, which matches up well with the 54% of the national vote that Evo won. Unfortunately, Evo has stirred up racial bitterness and is fanning the flames of hatred against the nation’s white minority. One of his first moves was to suggest a new constitution, which supposedly will be better for the indigenous population. It met fierce resistance and violent protests erupted across the country in early 2008. Eventually, the white politicians agreed to hold a referendum on the new constitution if Evo agrees to step down as president after two terms. The referendum is scheduled for January 2009 and I am glad we won’t be here as I think it will get very dangerous. The constitution introduces (among many many other things) land-reform, which is of course just a euphemism for land-redistribution. The majority-white province of Santa Cruz is threatening to secede, because it’s basically a ploy to give white land to indigenous. Our white hotel-owner in La Paz seemed concerned of what the future holds. Although land-reform seems like a page out of Mugabe’s book, Evo is borrowing ideas from dictators of other failed states too. One of his first moves was to nationalize (steal private company assets) the energy industry, just as Chavez did in Venezuela. It seemed silly to me to see the posters of Evo with the Castro bros and Chavez, the leaders of broken and failing nations. He disagrees with capitalism and wants to be identified as a revolutionary who can change Bolivia. Guess what? Bolivia’s had dozens of revolutions and over 70 presidents. Evo is pursuing the policies of other men who have bankrupted their nations and I don’t think Evo can bring about any positive change. Yea, it’s great that an indigenous can become president and its good that he wants to help his nation. But he’s just the latest of a new wave of Latin American neo-liberals that is going to drive his country into the ground. Fidel? Look at his country over the past 50 years. Chavez? Watch what happens now that oil has dropped and you kicked out all private oil companies. Correa? Want to default on your foreign debt because debt is “humiliating,” look what happened to Argentina. Land reform? Look what Mugabe’s done to Zimbabwe in only five years! Not only is Evo pursuing populist policies that are both bankrupt and downright communist, he is a racist preying on Bolivia’s minority. Bolivia is already headed down a painful path, but Evo will only exacerbate the pain.